Contextual factors influencing election results
in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Péter Reményi, Haris Gekić, Aida Bidžan-Gekić & Dávid Sümeghy
Quality & Quantity (2023) – Open Access – Published:
Electoral geography tends to focus on the impact of geographical context on electoral behavior recently and challenges the classical compositional approach. We analyze spatial contextual factors of the 2018 general elections of Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the linear regression models based on the fault line theory result in wrong estimations in several municipalities, not fitting into the national pattern. Using spatial modelling, it is confirmed that the strong territorial base of Bosnian parties is shaped by spatial dependence and spatial spillover effects. In addition to the spillover effect of individual party performance, the indirect neighbourhood role of ethnicity, sectoral structure and education was also shown in some cases.